Jun 03

Crypto Review for June 03 – $100M spike creating a 7% BTC dip? Bitcoin’s ‘Bart Simpson’ pattern questions the bullishness of sector

Bitcoin’s price is back below $10K after a sharp drop from $10,100 in what is already known as a “Bart Simpson Pattern.” That drop happened in just three minutes, allegedly caused by a $100 million liquidation on Bitmex. Bitcoin (-5.56%) is currently trading at the levels previous to the upward move made on June 01 ($9500). The rest of the altcoins and main cryptos followed and went down with swiftness. Ethereum (-4.46%) is back below $240 as Ripple (-3.71%) holds above $0.20. Ethereum-based token companies dropped as well, with NEXO (-22.31%) and CENNZ (-12.45%) leading the losses. Among this market selling, there were some counter-current movements such as BAND( +10.07%), AION (+5.71%), and UBT(+5.74%).

Fig 1 – 24H Crypto Sector Heat Map

The total market cap of the crypto sector went back to $265.165 billion, a 6-35% drop, made on a 24-hour volume of $43.463 billion (+1.43%), as Bitcoin domination descended slightly to 65.36%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers

Source coinmarketcap.com

Bottom 10 24-Hour  Performers

Source coinmarketcap.com


News Sentiment Analysis


Crypto-related news

  • Blockchain media startup Civil shuts down (The Block)
  • Despite $1,500 crash, charts show the Bitcoin uptrend is still “intact” (Bitcoinist)
  • Three Arrow’s Su Zhu on the race to build a crypto prime broker (The Block)
  • Bitcoin ATMs Face Tighter Regulations Over Money Laundering (Cointelegraph)
  • Capitulation by Unknown Miner ‘Caused the Dip,’ Says CryptoQuant CEO (Cointelegraph)
  • An Iranian lawmaker wants his country’s central bank to take bitcoin seriously (Coindesk)
  • Caitlin Long’s Avanti Raises $5M, Submits Wyoming Bank Charter Application Draft (Coindesk)
  • Ethereum Index emerges top performer with 14.7% returns (AMBCrypto)
  • Minnesota Official Alarms Privacy Advocates With Contact Tracing Comments (Coindesk)
  • U.S. customs officials add Venezuela’s cryptocurrency superintendent to Most Wanted list (The Block)

Mainstream news

  •  Stock futures steady as markets shake off ongoing unrest m(Yahoo Finance)
  • Lufthansa posts 2.1 billion euro loss after ‘drastic decline’ in air travel in the first quarter (CNBC)
  • Asian markets rise as Wall Street extends gains (Marketwatch)
  • European markets head for positive open but U.S. unrest weighs on sentiment (CNBC)
  • Biden on verge of clinching Democratic nomination (Marketwatch)
  • Zoom’s revenue soars 169% as people flock to service during pandemic (CNN)

  Sentiment analysis

Asian shares went up Wednesday following Wall Street’s continued gains for the third straight day, propelled by confidence over economies reopening from shutdowns. Japan’s Nikkei 225 NIK, gained +1.29%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, also rose +1.82% rose, as South Korea’s Kospi surged +2.75%.
Also, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, is up 1.35%, while the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, is mostly flat (0.21%).

European stock markets are expected to open in higher on Wednesday, although U.S. unrest might weigh on price action.
London’s FTSE is expected to open 67. points higher at 6,287, Germany’s DAX is seen 139 points higher at 12,129, France’s CAC 40 65 points higher at 4,910.

On the crypto front, traders are digesting Tuesday’s dramatic BTC drop from $10,100. Digital assets are seen moving sideways, as they try to create a base from which to move and find clues for direction.


Technical Analysis


Total Market

Fig 2 – Total Market Daily

The total market value made a sharp drop, which mostly negated the last bullish candlestick and created a piercing pattern. Still, the action is in the upper +1 sigma edge of the Bollinger bands. We see also that the bearish candle had its shadow touching the lower edge of the ascending channel, meaning it found buyers from there. We see also that the RSI has retraced below 60.

Technical  Factors
  • Linear regression channel points up +
  • Prices near the +1 sigma side of the Bollinger Bands +
  • Prices above its 20- 50-  and 200-day SMA +
  • 50-SMA above the 200-SMA +
  • Bollinger bands move sideways N
  • Rejected at $287.88 resistance level –
  • RSI down below 60 –
Total Market Outlook

The current situation is slightly bearish. The current candlestick shows the bullish confidence has been shattered. It is likely a re-visit to the $254.162 level.


Bitcoin

Fig 3 – Bitcoin 4H Chart

After the sharp drop made on Tuesday, Bitcoin is moving at the levels previous to the sizeable upward movement, but the price action has shifted to the lower side of the Bollinger bands. The good news is that the 50-period SMA still holds the price and that the 200-period SMA is just below it; thus, these levels may have strong supports for future price action.

Technical  Factors
  • The slope of the Linear Regression Channel  is positive +
  • Price above its  50- and 200-SMA  +
  • Price action still above the Pivot level +
  • The prices moving in the lower side of the Bollinger bands –
  • Bollinger Bands expanding but now sideways N-
  • Price below psychological 10K level again –
  • RSI sharp drop, and in the middle of the range –
Bitcoin’s Outlook

We currently see the price moving sideways in a tight range, above the 50-SMA support, but if the strength doesn’t come soon, BTC may experience move drops and test the $9,300. A drop below $9300 would trigger more selling and a re-visit to the $8,600 level.

Pivot Levels
SupportPivotResistance
8,7909,2759,925
8,14010,400
7,66511,056

Ethereum

Fig 4 – Ethereum 4H Chart

After making a high of $253, Ethereum dropped sharply, driven by Bitcoin’s price action, it found buyers at $225 and moved upward to settle just above the middle of the channel. Now we see the price moving on the lower side of the Bollinger bands, as the RSI backed and sits now in the middle of the range.

Technical  Factors
  • The slope of the linear regression channel is positive +
  • The price  made a new higher high +
  • The price above its 200-, and  50-SMA +
  • Linear Regression line supports the price +
  • Bollinger turning down –
  • The price below the mid-line of the Bollinger Bands –
Ethereum’s Outlook

Ethereum is bullish, even after the sharp drop made yesterday. The current action seems to continue the consolidation it was making before the last upward move, and it could keep moving upwards. But the current situation of Bitcoin could influence Ethereum supply-demand equation and drive it further down. The levels to watch are $233 to the downside and $240 to the upside.

Pivot Levels
SupportPivotResistance
203225254
175275
152304

Ripple

Fig 5 – Ripple 4H Chart

Ripple attempted to go above $0.2135 but failed due to Bitcoin’s inability to keep above $10k. XRP’s drop drove it below $0.197 but finally settled above the $0.20 key level. Now the action also takes place on the lower side of the Bollinger bands. Also, the price is back below its 200-SMA line and just above the 50-SMA. The RSI made a sharp drop and is currently below the 50 level.

Technical  Factors
  • Linear regression channel has a positive slope +
  • Price above its 50-SMA but below its 200-period SMA N
  • Prices still above Pivot level +
  • Bollinger bands turning down –
  • RSI down below 50 –
Ripple’s Outlook

After the movements of the previous days, XRP continues basically moving in a sideways path in a range between $0.21 and $0.19. However, the last action shows investors are interested in this digital asset, so oddly, the situation has improved slightly, We see it currently finds buyers under $0.20. That said, XRP’s action should remain choppy until the market ( and Bitcoin) makes another bullish move.

Pivot Points
SupportPivotResistance
0.180.19710.219
0.1580.236
0.1420.2575